Donald Trump’s Swing State Gains Are Ominous for Kamala Harris

Donald Trump was showing signs of increasing strength across the electoral map late Tuesday night—with the former president projected to win North Carolina, leading in the six other battleground states, and performing well among voting blocs that Kamala Harris needs to win the Electoral College.
Those signs were becoming more apparent in the “Blue Wall” states of the Rust Belt, where polls have closed but the race remained either too close or too early to call as of 11:30 p.m. ET.
The Harris campaign had always said those three states—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—were its clearest path to 270 electoral votes. But with Trump ahead in Georgia and the AP officially putting North Carolina in his column, it’s effectively the only path. And it is increasingly looking bleak for the Democrats.
With more than half the votes counted in blue-leaning Milwaukee County, Harris was ahead 67 percent to Trump’s 31 percent. Biden won with Milwaukee with 69.1 percent of the vote in 2020. Harris was also running about a point behind Biden in Dane County, home of the University of Wisconsin.
An NBC exit poll suggested Trump more than doubling his support among Black voters in the state, from 8 percent in 2020 to 21 percent this year.
The state that Biden carried with his largest margin among the battlegrounds four years ago was flashing warning signs for the vice president. In the Detroit suburbs, she was underperforming Biden in wealthy Oakland County, as well as working-class Macomb, where Trump was running 4 points ahead of his 2020 margins.
In Ingham County, home to Lansing and Michigan State University, Harris was significantly trailing Biden’s performance in 2020. With a third of the votes counted there, Harris was at 51 percent. Biden won Ingham with a commanding 65 percent of the vote.
In Washtenaw County, home to the liberal enclaves of Ann Arbor and University of Michigan, Biden won with 73 percent of the vote in 2020. With two-thirds of the vote counted in Washtenaw, Harris was at 66 percent.
The story of Michigan—and perhaps the election—was apparent in an NBC exit poll that found Hispanic and Latino voters, who make up 6 percent of the state’s electorate, breaking for the GOP, 60 to 35 percent. Biden won Michigan Latinos by 11 points four years ago.
Meanwhile, a CBS exit poll showed more bad news for Harris, with normally blue-leaning younger voters (18-29) going narrowly for Trump.
With nearly 75 percent of the vote counted, Trump was leading by 3.5 points in a state that remains a must-win for Harris.
In Centre County, home of Penn State, Trump was ahead by about 3,000 votes with 80 percent tabulated. Biden carried Happy Valley by around 4,000 votes.
Trump was also performing 14 points better among Pennsylvania Latinos than he did four years ago, according to NBC’s exit polling.
In a state that has gone from red to purple to blue over the two decades, the race was neck-and-neck, with Harris clinging to a 2-point lead at 80 percent of votes tabulated.
But there were signals that the former president had gained ground in the deep-blue northern D.C. suburbs. With 95 percent of the vote in, Harris was winning Loudoun County by about 16 points. Biden carried Loudoun by 25 points four years ago.
Harris would need to run up the score in other highly educated suburban counties like Loudoun around the country if she were to win the Electoral College.
Trump won his home state handily, as expected, though the margins were even stronger that expected in his favor. He was leading by nearly 13 points with 90 percent of the vote in, making it the former president’s strongest showing yet.
But as in Michigan, the most telling sign in Florida was materializing with the Latino vote.
In heavily Latino Miami-Dade, Trump was leading by more than 10 points. Biden won Miami-Dade by seven points last cycle, and Hillary Clinton took it by 30 points four years prior. In Osceola County outside Orlando, which is home to a heavily Puerto Rican population, Trump was ahead by about 3,000 votes with 95 percent tabulated. Biden had carried Osceola by 14 points in 2020.
The strong numbers for Trump in Florida come after Democrats have since more or less cut bait on the state as a whole after failing to carry it in the past two cycles.
The Peach State had not yet been called as of midnight, and Harris appeared to be overperforming Biden in the Atlanta suburbs. But the rest of the state told a different story as counties around Macon, Augusta and Savannah shifted right from 2020. Trump was leading Georgia by more than 2 points with 90 percent of the vote in.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.